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- NATION, Page 19Puerto Rico, the 51st Estado
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- Statehood gains momentum with a boost from Bush
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- A scale model of the Statue of Liberty evoked memories of
- Tiananmen Square. A mock barrier, dubbed the Wall of
- Colonialism, was battered down as demonstrators cheered. It
- might have been an anti-Soviet prop at an independence rally
- in Lithuania. Instead, this was in the city of Ponce in
- southern Puerto Rico, and the 125,000 yellow-clad marchers were
- not calling for the island's freedom but to join the U.S. as
- the 51st state.
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- The March 10 rally was surprising for its size, spirit and
- the message emblazoned on some banners: LA ESTADIDAD ES PARA
- LOS POBRES. Statehood for the poor? In Puerto Rico's
- triangulated politics, the statehood cause had been monopolized
- by the upper class. A small faction of nationalists and
- leftists fought, occasionally with guns, for total
- independence. The rest of the population appeared content with
- commonwealth status, the pragmatic option in effect since 1952.
- As an American commonwealth, or "associated free state" in
- island usage, Puerto Rico has received enough benefits and tax
- concessions from Washington to make it rich by Caribbean
- standards. But it remains impoverished compared with the
- mainland, with half the per capita income of Mississippi.
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- Now the triangle has been rearranged. The New Progressive
- Party, led by former Governor Carlos Romero Barcelo, argues
- that statehood would mean not only political equality but also
- more food on the table. The Popular Democratic Party, under
- incumbent Governor Rafael Hernandez Colon, contends that only
- an "enhanced" version of commonwealth can protect the island's
- economy as well as its Hispanic culture. Judging by polls and
- street-corner opinion, Romero's statehood campaign today enjoys
- momentum. When the Popular Democrats staged a rally in
- Mayaguez, only 75 partisans showed up. Watching the Ponce
- parade, Luisa Rodriguez, an unemployed mother of seven, said,
- "I don't know if the North Americans want Puerto Rico, but the
- Puerto Ricans want a better form of life. If there is no
- statehood, I will move to Ohio. In Ohio, they treat you well."
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- Washington helped promote the change in political dynamics.
- In January 1989 Hernandez proposed that Congress give formal
- blessing to a plebiscite with three options: independence,
- statehood or a modified form of commonwealth giving the island
- greater self-government. A month later, George Bush endorsed
- the proposal and reaffirmed the G.O.P.'s traditional support
- for statehood. But Bush signaled that he intended more than the
- token effort made by Republican predecessors. Bush and the
- Republican National Committee are trying to pry Hispanics from
- their traditional Democratic loyalty. Proposing full political
- equality for the island seized from Spain in 1898 helps that
- effort.
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- The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee last
- summer approved a bill that would sanction a binding plebiscite
- in 1991. However, the details horrified the Governor's faction:
- under the Senate bill, the statehood option seems an instant
- gold mine. Islanders would get a congressional delegation plus
- full parity with the other 50 states in federal welfare
- assistance immediately, while the present full exemption from
- federal taxes on individuals and companies would be phased out
- only gradually. About 40% of the island's 3.3 million residents
- now qualify for federally supported food assistance. According
- to Hernandez, average monthly benefits for a family of four
- would climb from $199 to $331.
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- These terms allowed Romero to proclaim statehood a bonanza
- for ordinary citizens. Hernandez denounced the Senate draft as
- "terribly, dangerously and unacceptably unbalanced." Now the
- commonwealth faction seeks help from the House. The island
- demonstrations coincided with a visit by the House Subcommittee
- on Insular and International Affairs, which is writing its own
- measure.
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- While demands for a swift resolution escalate on the island,
- many members of Congress have barely focused on the full impact
- of a plebiscite that would commit Washington to the outcome in
- advance. A new economic forecast circulated by Hernandez this
- month estimates that under the terms of the present Senate
- draft, statehood would cost the Treasury nearly $25 billion by
- the year 2000. According to this projection, many large
- companies would leave the island once they had to pay full
- federal taxes, doubling the already brutal unemployment rate to
- about 30%.
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- These pitfalls and Hernandez's complaints may cause Congress
- to delay indefinitely. That could benefit statehooders on the
- island and Republicans on the mainland. Hernandez would be
- blamed for the derailment, giving Romero a fine opportunity to
- recapture the governorship in 1992. In courting Hispanics, Bush
- would hold the Democratic Congress responsible for denying
- Puerto Rico an opportunity to choose its own political fate at
- a time when self-determination is the global fashion.
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- By Laurence I. Barrett. With reporting by James Carney/Ponce.
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